Title
The exact overall time distribution of a project with uncertain task durations
Abstract
This paper presents a new technique for computing the exact overall duration of a project, when task durations have independent distributions. A project is represented as an Activity-on-Arc (AoA) graph, where a task begins as soon as all its predecessor tasks have finished. Task durations use a probability density function (p.d.f.) which combines piecewise polynomial segments and Dirac delta functions, defined over a finite interval. A semi-analytical procedure is proposed to compute the cumulative distribution function (c.d.f.) directly by integrating a linear transformation of the p.d.f. of the task durations. Graph reduction techniques by Hopcroft and Tarjan and by Valdes allow the problem to be broken into a series of smaller subproblems, improving computational efficiency. Examples are presented to illustrate the proposed method.
Year
DOI
Venue
2000
10.1016/S0377-2217(99)00316-1
European Journal of Operational Research
Keywords
Field
DocType
Project management,PERT network,Graph theory,Network reduction,Multivariate statistics
Graph theory,Mathematical optimization,Polynomial,Dirac delta function,Cumulative distribution function,Linear map,Graph reduction,Probability density function,Mathematics,Piecewise
Journal
Volume
Issue
ISSN
126
3
0377-2217
Citations 
PageRank 
References 
18
2.11
8
Authors
2
Name
Order
Citations
PageRank
Craig W. Schmidt1182.11
Ignacio E. Grossmann22891263.13