Title
Performance and prediction: bayesian modelling of fallible choice in chess
Abstract
Evaluating agents in decision-making applications requires assessing their skill and predicting their behaviour. Both are well developed in Poker-like situations, but less so in more complex game and model domains. This paper addresses both tasks by using Bayesian inference in a benchmark space of reference agents. The concepts are explained and demonstrated using the game of chess but the model applies generically to any domain with quantifiable options and fallible choice. Demonstration applications address questions frequently asked by the chess community regarding the stability of the rating scale, the comparison of players of different eras and/or leagues, and controversial incidents possibly involving fraud. The last include alleged under-performance, fabrication of tournament results, and clandestine use of computer advice during competition. Beyond the model world of games, the aim is to improve fallible human performance in complex, high-value tasks.
Year
DOI
Venue
2009
10.1007/978-3-642-12993-3_10
ACG
Keywords
Field
DocType
alleged under-performance,bayesian inference,bayesian modelling,fallible choice,demonstration applications address question,chess community,complex game,model world,fallible human performance,model domain,poker-like situation,rating scale,human performance
Tournament,Bayesian inference,Simulation,Computer science,Rating scale,Artificial intelligence,World championship,Machine learning,Bayesian probability
Conference
Volume
ISSN
ISBN
6048
0302-9743
3-642-12992-7
Citations 
PageRank 
References 
7
0.84
5
Authors
3
Name
Order
Citations
PageRank
Guy Haworth1104.90
Ken Regan270.84
Giuseppe Di Fatta352939.23