Paper Info
Title
An Empirical Analysis of Forecast Sharing in the Semiconductor Equipment Supply Chain
Abstract
We study the demand forecast-sharing process between a buyer of customized production equipment and a set of equipment suppliers. Based on a large data collection we undertook in the semiconductor equipment supply chain, we empirically investigate the relationship between the buyer's forecasting behavior and the supplier's delivery performance. The buyer's forecasting behavior is characterized by the frequency and magnitude of forecast revisions it requests (forecast volatility) as well as by the fraction of orders that were forecasted but never actually purchased (forecast inflation). The supplier's delivery performance is measured by its ability to meet delivery dates requested by the customers. Based on a duration analysis, we are able to show that suppliers penalize buyers for unreliable forecasts by providing lower service levels. Vice versa, we also show that buyers penalize suppliers that have a history of poor service by providing them with overly inflated forecasts.
Year
DOI
Venue
2005
10.1287/mnsc.1040.0317
Management Science
Keywords
DocType
Volume
inflated forecast,unreliable forecast,delivery performance,forecast revision,customized production equipment,semiconductor equipment supply chain,forecasting behavior,forecast inflation,empirical analysis,forecast volatility,equipment supplier,col,demand forecasting,service level,empirical methods,supply chain,trust,empirical method,supply chain management
Journal
51
Issue
ISSN
Citations 
2
0025-1909
25
PageRank 
References 
Authors
1.89
12
4
Name
Order
Citations
PageRank
Christian Terwiesch181684.00
Z. Justin Ren213710.06
Teck H. Ho318117.75
Morris A. Cohen456279.50