Name
Abstract | ||
|---|---|---|
We construct a financial "Turing test" to determine whether human subjects can differenti- ate between actual vs. randomized financial returns. The experiment consists of an online video-game (http://arora.ccs.neu.edu) where players are challenged to distinguish ac- tual financial market returns from random temporal permutations of those returns. We find overwhelming statistical evidence (p-values no greater than 0.5%) that subjects can con- sistently distinguish between the two types of time series, thereby refuting the widespread belief that financial markets "look random". A key feature of the experiment is that subjects are given immediate feedback regarding the validity of their choices, allowing them to learn and adapt. We suggest that such novel interfaces can harness human capabilities to process and extract information from financial data in ways that computers cannot. |
Year | DOI | Venue |
|---|---|---|
2010 | 10.2139/ssrn.1558149 | Clinical Orthopaedics and Related Research |
Keywords | DocType | Volume |
technical analysis,pattern recognition,turing test,human interface,financial market,time series,market efficiency | Journal | abs/1002.4 |
Citations | PageRank | References |
1 | 0.39 | 1 |
Authors | ||
3 | ||
Name | Order | Citations | PageRank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jasmina Hasanhodzic | 1 | 1 | 0.72 |
| Andrew W. Lo | 2 | 68 | 33.01 |
| Emanuele Viola | 3 | 588 | 44.78 |