Title
A spatio-temporal model for probabilistic seismic hazard zonation of Tehran
Abstract
A precondition for all disaster management steps, building damage prediction, and construction code developments is a hazard assessment that shows the exceedance probabilities of different ground motion levels at a site considering different near- and far-field earthquake sources. The seismic sources are usually categorized as time-independent area sources and time-dependent fault sources. While the earlier incorporates the small and medium events, the later takes into account only the large characteristic earthquakes. In this article, a probabilistic approach is proposed to aggregate the effects of time-dependent and time-independent sources on seismic hazard. The methodology is then applied to generate three probabilistic seismic hazard maps of Tehran for 10%, 5%, and 2% exceedance probabilities in 50 years. The results indicate an increase in peak ground acceleration (PGA) values toward the southeastern part of the study area and the PGA variations are mostly controlled by the shear wave velocities across the city. In addition, the implementation of the methodology takes advantage of GIS capabilities especially raster-based analyses and representations. During the estimation of the PGA exceedance rates, the emphasis has been placed on incorporating the effects of different attenuation relationships and seismic source models by using a logic tree.
Year
DOI
Venue
2013
10.1016/j.cageo.2013.04.005
Computers & Geosciences
Keywords
Field
DocType
seismic source,exceedance probability,pga exceedance rate,different ground motion level,pga variation,spatio-temporal model,hazard assessment,probabilistic seismic hazard map,seismic hazard,probabilistic seismic hazard zonation,different attenuation relationship,seismic source model,gis,logic tree
Seismology,Earthquake scenario,Raster graphics,Computer science,Incremental Dynamic Analysis,Hazard analysis,Peak ground acceleration,Probabilistic logic,Attenuation,Seismic hazard
Journal
Volume
ISSN
Citations 
58,
0098-3004
3
PageRank 
References 
Authors
0.52
1
5