Title
Strengths and limitations of microarray-based phenotype prediction: lessons learned from the IMPROVER Diagnostic Signature Challenge.
Abstract
Motivation: After more than a decade since microarrays were used to predict phenotype of biological samples, real-life applications for disease screening and identification of patients who would best benefit from treatment are still emerging. The interest of the scientific community in identifying best approaches to develop such prediction models was reaffirmed in a competition style international collaboration called IMPROVER Diagnostic Signature Challenge whose results we describe herein. Results: Fifty-four teams used public data to develop prediction models in four disease areas including multiple sclerosis, lung cancer, psoriasis and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and made predictions on blinded new data that we generated. Teams were scored using three metrics that captured various aspects of the quality of predictions, and best performers were awarded. This article presents the challenge results and introduces to the community the approaches of the best overall three performers, as well as an R package that implements the approach of the best overall team. The analyses of model performance data submitted in the challenge as well as additional simulations that we have performed revealed that (i) the quality of predictions depends more on the disease endpoint than on the particular approaches used in the challenge; (ii) the most important modeling factor (e. g. data preprocessing, feature selection and classifier type) is problem dependent; and (iii) for optimal results datasets and methods have to be carefully matched. Biomedical factors such as the disease severity and confidence in diagnostic were found to be associated with the misclassification rates across the different teams.
Year
DOI
Venue
2013
10.1093/bioinformatics/btt492
BIOINFORMATICS
Keywords
Field
DocType
phenotype,gene expression profiling
Data mining,Disease,Microarray,Feature selection,Computer science,Data pre-processing,Predictive modelling,Bioinformatics,Disease Screening,Classifier (linguistics),R package
Journal
Volume
Issue
ISSN
29
22
1367-4803
Citations 
PageRank 
References 
10
0.98
3
Authors
20
Name
Order
Citations
PageRank
adi l tarca11309.39
Mario Lauria262895.12
Michael Unger3100.98
Erhan Bilal4284.09
Stéphanie Boué5363.50
Kushal Kumar Dey6101.32
Julia Hoeng79110.97
Heinz Koeppl815936.18
Florian Martin959053.16
Pablo Meyer10628.26
Preetam Nandy11122.05
Raquel Norel12449.09
Manuel C. Peitsch1321427.32
John Jeremy Rice147111.16
Roberto Romero1519512.04
Gustavo Stolovitzky1673851.84
Marja Talikka17413.70
Yang Xiang18181.74
Christoph Zechner19202.24
Improver Dsc Collaborators20100.98