Title
Estimation of risk-neutral density surfaces
Abstract
Option price data is often used to infer risk-neutral densities for future prices of an underlying asset. Given the prices of a set of options on the same underlying asset with different strikes and maturities, we propose a nonparametric approach for estimating risk-neutral densities associated with several maturities. Our method uses bicubic splines in order to achieve the desired smoothness for the estimation and an optimization model to choose the spline functions that best fit the price data. Semidefinite programming is employed to guarantee the nonnegativity of the densities. We illustrate the process using synthetic option price data generated using log-normal and absolute diffusion processes as well as actual price data for options on the S&P 500 index. We also used the risk-neutral densities that we computed to price exotic options and observed that this approach generates prices that closely approximate the market prices of these options.
Year
DOI
Venue
2011
10.1007/s10287-010-0126-3
Computational Management Science
Keywords
DocType
Volume
Quadratic Programming,Option Price,Implied Volatility,Average Relative Error,Strike Price
Journal
8
Issue
ISSN
Citations 
4
1619-697X
0
PageRank 
References 
Authors
0.34
5
3
Name
Order
Citations
PageRank
A. M. Monteiro100.34
R. H. Tütüncü200.34
luis n vicente317611.24