Name
Abstract | ||
|---|---|---|
Travel time is a fundamental measure in transportation, and accurate travel time forecasting is crucial in intelligent transportation systems (ITSs). Currently, many techniques have been applied to travel time forecasting; however, the reliability of the prediction has not been studied in these approaches. In this paper, we propose an approach using the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH) model to study the volatility of travel time and supply the information about reliability for travel time forecasting. Three examples on real urban vehicular traffic data show the whole modeling process. In the experiments, we utilize the conditional predicted standard deviation (PSD) to express the reliability of travel time forecasting and screen out the sample points that are thought to be reliable forecasting. The results show that the root-mean-square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), and mean absolute percent error (MAPE) are all decreasing with an increase in the demand of the reliability. It proves that the model well depicts the reliability of travel time forecasting and that the proposed approach is feasible. |
Year | DOI | Venue |
|---|---|---|
2010 | 10.1109/TITS.2009.2037136 | IEEE Transactions on Intelligent Transportation Systems |
Keywords | Field | DocType |
intelligent transportation system,generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity,root-mean-square error,accurate travel time forecasting,absolute percent error,travel time,travel time forecasting,absolute error,time forecasting,reliable forecasting,mean absolute error,kalman filters,time series,predictive models,control systems,adaptive systems,demand forecasting,time series analysis,time measurement,garch model,mean absolute percent error,traffic management,intelligent transportation systems,reliability,standard deviation,path planning,root mean square error | Mean absolute percentage error,Econometrics,Autoregressive model,Time series,Heteroscedasticity,Demand forecasting,Mean squared error,Engineering,Statistics,Autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity,Standard deviation | Journal |
Volume | Issue | ISSN |
11 | 1 | 1524-9050 |
Citations | PageRank | References |
21 | 1.73 | 4 |
Authors | ||
3 | ||
Name | Order | Citations | PageRank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Menglong Yang | 1 | 109 | 10.49 |
| Yiguang Liu | 2 | 338 | 37.15 |
| Zhisheng You | 3 | 417 | 52.22 |