Paper Info
Title
Pattern informatics approach to earthquake forecasting in 3D
Abstract
Natural seismicity is correlated across multiple spatial and temporal scales, but correlations in seismicity prior to a large earthquake are locally subtle (e.g. seismic quiescence) and often prominent in broad scale (e.g. seismic activation), resulting in local and regional seismicity patterns, e.g. a Mogi's donut. Recognizing that patterns in seismicity rate are reflecting the regional dynamics of the directly unobservable crustal stresses, the Pattern Informatics (PI) approach was introduced by Tiampo et al. and Rundle et al. in 2002. In this study, we expand the PI approach to forecasting earthquakes into the third or vertical dimension, and illustrate its further improvement in the forecasting performance through case studies of both natural and synthetic data. The PI characterizes rapidly evolving spatio-temporal seismicity patterns as angular drifts of a unit state vector in a high-dimensional correlation space, and systematically identifies anomalous shifts in seismic activity with respect to the regional background. 3D PI analysis is particularly advantageous over 2D analysis in resolving vertically overlapped seismicity anomalies in a highly complex tectonic environment. Case studies will help to illustrate some important properties of the PI forecasting tool. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Year
DOI
Venue
2010
10.1002/cpe.v22:12
Concurrency and Computation: Practice and Experience
Keywords
DocType
Volume
case study,natural seismicity,overlapped seismicity anomaly,regional seismicity pattern,seismicity rate,spatio-temporal seismicity pattern,PI analysis,PI approach,PI forecasting tool,forecasting performance,earthquake forecasting,pattern informatics
Journal
22
Issue
ISSN
Citations 
12
1532-0626
1
PageRank 
References 
Authors
0.35
0
6
Name
Order
Citations
PageRank
Y. Toya110.35
Kristy F. Tiampo2294.35
John B. Rundle32610.61
Chien-Chih Chen411120.42
Hsien-Chi Li510.35
William Klein682.04