Paper Info
Title
Simulation of large networks: propagation of uncertainty in a simulation-based maritime risk assessment model utilizing Bayesian simulation techniques
Abstract
Recent studies in the assessment of risk in maritime transportation systems have used simulation-based probabilistic techniques. Amongst them are the San Francisco Bay (SFB) Ferry exposure assessment in 2002, the Washington State Ferry (WFS) Risk Assessment in 1998 and the Prince William Sound (PWS) Risk Assessment in 1996. Representing uncertainty in such simulation models is fundamental to quantifying system risk. This paper illustrates the representation of uncertainty in simulation using Bayesian techniques to model input and output uncertainty. These uncertainty representations describe system randomness as well as lack of knowledge about the system. The study of the impact of proposed ferry service expansions in San Francisco Bay is used as a case study to demonstrate the Bayesian simulation technique. Such characterization of uncertainty in simulation-based analysis provides the user with a greater level of information enabling improved decision making.
Year
DOI
Venue
2003
10.5555/1030818.1030880
Winter Simulation Conference
Keywords
Field
DocType
system randomness,bayesian simulation technique,output uncertainty,san francisco bay,uncertainty representation,simulation model,quantifying system risk,maritime transportation system,representing uncertainty,simulation-based maritime risk assessment,large network,risk assessment
Propagation of uncertainty,Simulation,Computer science,Risk assessment,Sensitivity analysis,Operations research,Uncertainty analysis,Input/output,Simulation modeling,Probabilistic logic,Bayesian probability
Conference
ISBN
Citations 
PageRank 
0-7803-8132-7
1
0.35
References 
Authors
8
5
Name
Order
Citations
PageRank
Jason R. W. Merrick113516.29
Varun Dinesh210.35
Amita Singh3182.54
J. René van Dorp411616.43
Thomas A. Mazzuchi523636.86