Title
Model-based estimation of buffer overflow probabilities from measurements
Abstract
We consider the problem of estimating buffer overflow probabilities when the statistics of the input traffic are not known and have to be estimated from measurements. We start by investigating the use of Markov-modulated processes in modeling the input traffic and propose a method for selecting an optimal model based on Akaike's Information Criterion. We then consider a queue fed by such a Markov-modulated input process and use large deviations asymptotics to obtain the buffer overflow probability. The expression for this probability is affected by estimation errors in the parameters of the input model. We analyze the effect of these errors and propose a new, more robust, estimator which is less likely to underestimate the overflow probability than the estimator obtained by certainty equivalence. As such, it is appropriate in situations where the overflow probability is associated with Quality of Service (QoS) and we need to provide firm QoS guarantees. Nevertheless, as the number of observations increases, the proposed estimator converges with probability 1 to the appropriate target, and thus, does not lead to resource underutilization in this limit.
Year
DOI
Venue
2001
10.1145/378420.378778
Proceedings of the ACM SIGMETRICS international conference on Measurement and modeling of computer systems
Keywords
Field
DocType
robust estimator,quality of service,buffer overflow,large deviations,estimation
Certainty equivalence,Mathematical optimization,Akaike information criterion,Computer science,Queue,Quality of service,Large deviations theory,Asymptotic analysis,Buffer overflow,Estimator
Conference
Volume
Issue
ISSN
29
1
0163-5999
ISBN
Citations 
PageRank 
1-58113-334-0
5
0.62
References 
Authors
14
3
Name
Order
Citations
PageRank
Ioannis Ch Paschalidis138747.70
Spyridon Vassilaras21059.46
PaschalidisIoannis Ch.318917.38