Paper Info
Title
Predicting ambulance demand using singular spectrum analysis.
Abstract
This paper demonstrates techniques to generate accurate predictions of demand exerted upon the Emergency Medical Services (EMS) using data provided by the Welsh Ambulance Service Trust (WAST). The aim is to explore new methods to produce accurate forecasts that can be subsequently embedded into current OR methodologies to optimise resource allocation of vehicles and staff, and allow rapid response to potentially life-threatening emergencies. Our analysis explores a relatively new non-parametric technique for time series analysis known as Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA). We explain the theory of SSA and evaluate the performance of this approach by comparing the results with those produced by conventional time series methods. We show that in addition to being more flexible in approach, SSA produces superior longer-term forecasts (which are especially helpful for EMS planning), and comparable shorter-term forecasts to well established methods. Journal of the Operational Research Society (2012) 63, 1556-1565. doi: 10.1057/jors.2011.160 published online 22 February 2012
Year
DOI
Venue
2012
10.1057/jors.2011.160
JORS
Keywords
Field
DocType
health service,emergency medical services,forecasting,singular spectrum analysis
Information system,Time series,Scheduling (computing),Computer science,Operations research,Resource allocation,Emergency medical services,Purchasing,Singular spectrum analysis,Operations management,Project management
Journal
Volume
Issue
ISSN
63
11
0160-5682
Citations 
PageRank 
References 
3
0.45
6
Authors
4
Name
Order
Citations
PageRank
Julie Leanne Vile141.47
Jonathan Gillard2256.99
Paul R. Harper318818.44
Vincent A. Knight43710.00