Paper Info
Title
A comparison of models for measurable deterioration: An application to coatings on steel structures
Abstract
Steel structures like bridges, tanks and pylons are exposed to outdoor weathering conditions. In order to prevent them from corrosion they are protected by organic coating systems. This paper focuses on modelling the deterioration of the organic coating layer that protects steel structures from corrosion. Only if there is sufficient knowledge of the condition of the coating on these structures, maintenance actions can be done in the most efficient way. Therefore the course of the deterioration of the coating system and its lifetime, which is also of importance for doing maintenance, have to be assessed accurately. In this paper, three different stochastic processes, viz. Brownian motion with non-linear drift, the non-stationary gamma process and a two-stage hit-and-grow physical process, are fitted to two real data sets. In this way we are the first who compare the three stochastic processes empirically on criteria such as goodness-of-fit, computational convenience and ease of implementation. The first data set is based on expert judgement; the second consists of inspection results. In the first case the model parameters are obtained by a least-squares approach, in the second case by the method of maximum likelihood. A meta-analysis is performed on the two-stage hit-and-grow model by means of fitting Brownian motion and gamma process to the outcomes of this model.
Year
DOI
Venue
2007
10.1016/j.ress.2006.09.021
Reliability Engineering & System Safety
Keywords
Field
DocType
Deterioration modelling,Stochastic processes,Brownian motion,Gamma process,Physical process,Maintenance,Estimation,Simulation
Least squares,Corrosion,Measure (mathematics),Simulation,Coating,Gamma process,Stochastic process,Engineering,Brownian motion,Maintenance actions,Structural engineering
Journal
Volume
Issue
ISSN
92
12
0951-8320
Citations 
PageRank 
References 
20
2.64
2
Authors
3
Name
Order
Citations
PageRank
Robin P. Nicolai1285.32
Rommert Dekker2763101.60
J. M. van Noortwijk328228.02