Name
Abstract | ||
|---|---|---|
The problems of planning for economic development arise from the interplay of the political, social and economic subsystems of a developing country. These problems are characterized by the uncertainty necessarily inherent in any process of planning for the future-uncertainty arising both from the quantity and quality of available data and from the difficulties of fore-casting how a large-scale system of complex interactive and feedback relationships will respond to policy inputs. In this paper, we discuss generalized system simulation as an approach to dealing with these problems. We view this approach as a flexible, iterative, problem-investigating process that includes problem formulation, mathematical modeling, testing and refinement of the model, and model application to problem solution-all in close consultation with decision makers. This discussion will be followed by a brief description of policy-oriented, system simulation models of the Nigerian and Korean economies. The models consist of detailed regional agricultural submodels, an aggregated national nonagricultural submodel and components which model population and, in the case of Nigeria, the interregional trade in food. The policy options the current models are capable of investigating include programs to modernize agricultural production and various forms of tax and commodity marketing board pricing policies. Finally, we outline how the generalized system simulation approach could be implemented within the development-planning and policy-making process and indicate some of the capabilities and limitations of the approach. |
Year | DOI | Venue |
|---|---|---|
1975 | 10.1016/0005-1098(75)90040-0 | Automatica (Journal of IFAC) |
Keywords | DocType | Volume |
development planning,generalized system simulation approach,model population,policy-making process,model application,current model,generalized system simulation,agricultural production,system simulation model,korean application,problem-investigating process,large-scale system | Journal | 11 |
Issue | ISSN | Citations |
3 | 0005-1098 | 1 |
PageRank | References | Authors |
0.54 | 2 | 2 |
Name | Order | Citations | PageRank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Michael H. Abkin | 1 | 5 | 5.03 |
| Thomas J. Manetsch | 2 | 15 | 13.45 |