Paper Info
Title
Optimal isolation control strategies and cost-effectiveness analysis of a two-strain avian influenza model.
Abstract
The most important and effective measures against disease outbreaks in the absence of valid medicines or vaccine are quarantine and isolation strategies. In this paper optimal control theory is applied to a system of ordinary differential equation describing a two-strain avian influenza transmission via the Pontryagin's Maximum Principle. To this end, a pair of control variables representing the isolation strategies for individuals with avian and mutant strains were incorporated into the transmission model. The infection averted ratio (IAR) and the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) were calculated to investigate the cost-effectiveness of all possible combinations of the control strategies. The simulation results show that the implementation of the combination strategy during the epidemic is the most cost-effective strategy for avian influenza transmission. This is followed by the control strategy involving isolation of individuals with the mutant strain. Also observed was the fact that low mutating and more virulent virus results in an increased control effort of isolating individuals with the avian strain; and high mutating with more virulent virus results in increased efforts in isolating individuals with the mutant strain.
Year
DOI
Venue
2013
10.1016/j.biosystems.2013.06.004
Biosystems
Keywords
Field
DocType
92B05,93A30,93C15
Strain (chemistry),Transmission (mechanics),Optimal control,Biology,Cost-effectiveness analysis,Incremental cost-effectiveness ratio,Outbreak,Influenza A virus subtype H5N1,Genetics,Virulence,Virology
Journal
Volume
Issue
ISSN
113
3
0303-2647
Citations 
PageRank 
References 
6
0.78
4
Authors
1
Name
Order
Citations
PageRank
F. B. Agusto1132.56