Title
Predicting Current User Intent with Contextual Markov Models
Abstract
In many web information systems like e-shops and information portals predictive modeling is used to understand user intentions based on their browsing behavior. User behavior is inherently sensitive to various contexts. Identifying such relevant contexts can help to improve the prediction performance. In this work, we propose a formal approach in which the context discovery process is defined as an optimization problem. For simplicity we assume a concrete yet generic scenario in which context is considered to be a secondary label of an instance that is either known from the available contextual attribute (e.g. user location) or can be induced from the training data (e.g. novice vs. expert user). In an ideal case, the objective function of the optimization problem has an analytical form enabling us to design a context discovery algorithm solving the optimization problem directly. An example with Markov models, a typical approach for modeling user browsing behavior, shows that the derived analytical form of the optimization problem provides us with useful mathematical insights of the problem. Experiments with a real-world use-case show that we can discover useful contexts allowing us to significantly improve the prediction of user intentions with contextual Markov models.
Year
DOI
Venue
2013
10.1109/ICDMW.2013.143
ICDM Workshops
Keywords
Field
DocType
analytical form,contextual markov models,user behavior,optimization problem,predicting current user intent,relevant context,user location,user intention,context discovery process,context discovery algorithm,browsing behavior,expert user,markov processes,information systems
Data mining,Data modeling,Markov process,Markov model,Computer science,Context model,Context awareness,Artificial intelligence,Business process discovery,Hidden Markov model,Optimization problem,Machine learning
Conference
ISSN
Citations 
PageRank 
2375-9232
12
0.83
References 
Authors
13
4
Name
Order
Citations
PageRank
Julia Kiseleva1567.90
Hoang Thanh Lam21088.49
Mykola Pechenizkiy31655125.40
Toon Calders4133393.66