Paper Info
Title
Use of Bayesian Method for Assessing Vessel Traffic Risks at Sea
Abstract
Risks associated with a vessel traffic system at sea are analyzed according to the elements in this system and a new method is developed to ensure safe ship operation. Based on Bayes' point estimate and probability influence diagram to estimate the traffic accidents related to vessel traffic, an analysis model is established for the quantitative risk assessment (QRA) of the vessel traffic system at sea. After the analysis on occurrence likelihood of the accidents related to ship traffic, a structure on the basis of Bayesian networks is developed to obtain the QRA of their relative risks. QRA is also put forward after analyzing the features and situations of the vessel traffic system and identifying the corresponding hazards including characteristics of those hazards. The risk distributions of ship traffic are described and results are presented on QRA in relation to various features by using this risk assessment model. This method, verified in the cases of QRA, turns out to be feasible by the use of identified posterior probability.
Year
DOI
Venue
2008
10.1142/S0219622008003198
PROCEEDINGS OF THE 1ST INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON RISK ANALYSIS AND CRISIS RESPONSE
Keywords
Field
DocType
ship,risk assessment,Bayesian network,probability influence diagram,safety factor
Point estimation,Data mining,Risk assessment,Posterior probability,Bayesian network,Influence diagram,Artificial intelligence,Safety factor,Mathematics,Machine learning,Bayes' theorem,Bayesian probability
Journal
Volume
Issue
ISSN
2.0
4
0219-6220
Citations 
PageRank 
References 
8
0.85
13
Authors
4
Name
Order
Citations
PageRank
Shenping Hu1172.50
Xudong Li280.85
Quan-Gen Fang3202.98
Zai-Li Yang411213.72