Title
Transient Modeling of Permafrost Dynamics in Changing Climate Scenarios
Abstract
Analysis of permafrost dynamics with a three-phase, two-component flow system coupled to heat transport is used to evaluate transient changes in groundwater seepage. Both seasonal and annual analysis of flow is conducted, assuming three warming temperature trends over a ten year period, representing three climate change scenarios. Previous results have indicated that a reduction in temporal variability of groundwater flow is expected to occur for a moderate temperature trend over long warming time periods. Here, new results indicate this is also expected for larger rates-of-change of temperature increase and over shorter time periods. Additionally it is shown that short-term annual flow variability may serve as early indicators for permafrost degradation also for greater warming trends, rather than solely relying on long-term changes in mean flows.
Year
DOI
Venue
2011
10.1109/eScience.2011.24
eScience
Keywords
Field
DocType
transient modeling,warming temperature trend,annual analysis,mean flow,short-term annual flow variability,permafrost dynamics,groundwater flow,two-component flow system,greater warming trend,long warming time period,moderate temperature trend,climate scenarios,temperature increase,climate change,permafrost,hydrology,seasonality,meteorology,modeling,temperature,heat transfer,rate of change,atmospheric boundary layer,physical geography,climatology,media,atmospheric temperature,environmental sciences,groundwater,face
Groundwater flow,Climate change,Groundwater,Atmospheric temperature,Flow (psychology),Atmospheric sciences,Environmental science,Multiphase flow,Planetary boundary layer,Permafrost
Conference
Citations 
PageRank 
References 
0
0.34
0
Authors
4
Name
Order
Citations
PageRank
Andrew Frampton100.34
Georgia Destouni251.19
Ylva Sjoberg300.34
Scott Painter4222.39