Paper Info
Title
Facilitating risky project negotiation: An integrated approach using fuzzy real options, multicriteria analysis, and conflict analysis.
Abstract
This paper proposes a risky project negotiation framework, comprising fuzzy real options, ordered weighted averaging (OWA), and the graph model of conflict resolution (GMCR). Fuzzy real options analysis is employed to evaluate risky projects where the value of managerial flexibility cannot be overlooked. For civil engineering project evaluation, OWA is used to estimate the parameters of the fuzzy real options model, such as initial values and volatilities, to reflect the risk preference of decision makers (DMs). Because it can take into account DMs’ values and preferences for a risky project, GMCR is utilized to identify equilibria, or potential resolutions of the conflict, among all possible states, or combinations of DMs’ choices. While an option pricing model is employed to estimate the values of decision makers (DMs) toward a risky project, all parts are integrated via fuzzy functions in this framework. A brownfield redevelopment case, the Ralgreen Community in Kitchener, Ontario, Canada, is used as a typical risky project to demonstrate how to apply this integrated approach. The main contribution of this paper is to demonstrate the comprehensive use of fuzzy methods to assess brownfield projects. For this purpose, stochastic methods face difficulties because risks cannot be fully reflected in market prices. Expert knowledge that is descriptive, multi-attribute, or subjective in nature can be effectively quantified using fuzzy representations.
Year
DOI
Venue
2015
10.1016/j.ins.2014.10.049
Information Sciences
Keywords
Field
DocType
Fuzzy real options,Ordered weighted averaging (OWA),Graph model conflict resolution (GMCR),Private risk,Risky project evaluation
Redevelopment,Conflict resolution,Market price,Brownfield,Black–Scholes model,Artificial intelligence,Management science,Fuzzy logic,Operations research,Machine learning,Mathematics,Negotiation,Program evaluation
Journal
Volume
ISSN
Citations 
295
0020-0255
0
PageRank 
References 
Authors
0.34
15
3
Name
Order
Citations
PageRank
Qian Wang100.34
D. Marc Kilgour257170.61
K. W. Hipel3812116.70