Title
A hybrid analytical-heuristic method for calibrating land-use change models
Abstract
Spatially explicit land-use models simulate the patterns of change on the landscape in response to coupled human-ecological dynamics. As these models become more complex involving larger than ever data sets, the need to improve calibration techniques as well as methods that test model accuracy also increases. To this end, we developed a Genetic Algorithm tool and applied it to optimize probability maps of deforestation generated from the Weights of Evidence method for 12 case-study sites in the Brazilian Amazon. We show that the Genetic Algorithm tool, after being constrained during the reproduction process within a specified range and trend of variation of the Weights of Evidence coefficients, was able to overcome overfitting and improve validation fitness scores with acceptable computational costs. In addition to modeling deforestation, the Genetic Algorithm tool coupled with the Weights of Evidence method is flexible enough to embrace a variety of models as well as their specific fitness functions, thus offering a practical way to optimize the performance of land-use change models.
Year
DOI
Venue
2013
10.1016/j.envsoft.2013.01.010
Environmental Modelling and Software
Keywords
Field
DocType
genetic algorithm
Heuristic,Data set,Computer science,Land use, land-use change and forestry,Artificial intelligence,Overfitting,Genetic algorithm,Calibration,Machine learning
Journal
Volume
ISSN
Citations 
43,
1364-8152
9
PageRank 
References 
Authors
0.97
28
3
Name
Order
Citations
PageRank
Britaldo Silveira Soares-Filho190.97
Hermann Rodrigues2242.40
Marco Follador3292.39