Title
Discovering Many-to-One Causality in Software Project Risk Analysis
Abstract
Many risk factors affect software development and risk management has become one of the major activities in software development. Discovering causal directions among risk factors and project performance are important support for risk management. The Additive Noise Model (ANM) is an effective algorithm for discovering the direction on one-to-one causalities, but ineffective on many-to-one causalities which are frequent in software project risk analysis (SPRA) process. Thus we proposed a modified ANM with Conditional Probability Table (ANMCPT) to discover the causal direction among risk factors and project performance. The experimental results show our proposed algorithm is effective to discover the many-to-one causalities in SPRM on 498 collected software project data, and it performs better than other algorithms in the prediction with discovered causes of project performance, such as logistic regression, C4.5, Naïve Bayes, and general BNs. This study firstly presents an approach using ANM for many-to-one causality discovery in SPRA and then proves that it is an effective algorithm for analyzing the risk in software project.
Year
DOI
Venue
2014
10.1109/3PGCIC.2014.133
3PGCIC
Keywords
Field
DocType
logistic regression,conditional probability table,software development management,project risk management,anm algorithm,spra process,software project risk analysis,causal direction discovery,software development,risk factors,risk analysis,naive bayes algorithm,many-to-one causality discovery,project management,risk management,additive noise model,data mining,causality discovery,c4.5 algorithm,project risk management, causality discovery, additive noise model,anmcpt algorithm,probability,algorithm design and analysis
Project risk management,Data mining,Causality,Algorithm design,Naive Bayes classifier,Computer science,Risk management,Software,Artificial intelligence,Conditional probability table,Machine learning,Software development
Conference
Citations 
PageRank 
References 
1
0.35
16
Authors
7
Name
Order
Citations
PageRank
Weiqi Chen1204.79
Kang Liu210.69
Lijun Su310.35
Mei Liu433419.84
Zhifeng Hao565378.36
Yong Hu68912.08
Xiangzhou Zhang71038.26