Title
Comprehensive lower bounds on sequential prediction
Abstract
We study the problem of sequential prediction of real-valued sequences under the squared error loss function. While refraining from any statistical and structural assumptions on the underlying sequence, we introduce a competitive approach to this problem and compare the performance of a sequential algorithm with respect to the large and continuous class of parametric predictors. We define the performance difference between a sequential algorithm and the best parametric predictor as “regret”, and introduce a guaranteed worst-case lower bounds to this relative performance measure. In particular, we prove that for any sequential algorithm, there always exists a sequence for which this regret is lower bounded by zero. We then extend this result by showing that the prediction problem can be transformed into a parameter estimation problem if the class of parametric predictors satisfy a certain property, and provide a comprehensive lower bound to this case.
Year
Venue
Keywords
2014
Signal Processing Conference
functional analysis,prediction theory,sequences,comprehensive lower bound,guaranteed worst case lower bound,parametric prediction,real valued sequence,relative performance measure,sequential algorithm,sequential prediction,squared error loss function,Sequential prediction,lower bound,worst-case performance
Field
DocType
ISSN
Signal processing,Mathematical optimization,Regret,Upper and lower bounds,Mean squared error,Parametric statistics,Estimation theory,Sequential algorithm,Mathematics,Bounded function
Conference
2076-1465
Citations 
PageRank 
References 
0
0.34
3
Authors
4
Name
Order
Citations
PageRank
Nuri Denizcan Vanli1776.77
Muhammed O. Sayin2775.77
Salih Ergüt336519.17
S. S. Kozat419416.72