Title
Calibrating simulation models using the knowledge gradient with continuous parameters
Abstract
We describe an adaptation of the knowledge gradient, originally developed for discrete ranking and selection problems, to the problem of calibrating continuous parameters for the purpose of tuning a simulator. The knowledge gradient for continuous parameters uses a continuous approximation of the expected value of a single measurement to guide the choice of where to collect information next. We show how to find the parameter setting that maximizes the expected value of a measurement by optimizing a continuous but nonconcave surface. We compare the method to sequential kriging for a series of test surfaces, and then demonstrate its performance in the calibration of an expensive industrial simulator.
Year
DOI
Venue
2010
10.1109/WSC.2010.5679082
Winter Simulation Conference
Keywords
Field
DocType
calibration,simulation,statistical analysis,continuous parameters,discrete ranking,industrial simulator,knowledge gradient,sequential kriging,simulation model calibration,simulator tuning
Computer science,Simulation modeling,Artificial intelligence,Gaussian process,Kriging,Mathematical optimization,Ranking,Simulation,Continuous approximation,Expected value,Covariance matrix,Calibration,Machine learning
Conference
ISSN
ISBN
Citations 
0891-7736
978-1-4244-9866-6
3
PageRank 
References 
Authors
0.47
4
3
Name
Order
Citations
PageRank
Warren R. Scott130.47
Warren B. Powell21614151.46
Hugo Simão31068.38