Title
A Simple Generative Model Of Collective Online Behavior
Abstract
Human activities increasingly take place in online environments, providing novel opportunities for relating individual behaviors to population-level outcomes. In this paper, we introduce a simple generative model for the collective behavior of millions of social networking site users who are deciding between different software applications. Our model incorporates two distinct mechanisms: one is associated with recent decisions of users, and the other reflects the cumulative popularity of each application. Importantly, although various combinations of the two mechanisms yield long-time behavior that is consistent with data, the only models that reproduce the observed temporal dynamics are those that strongly emphasize the recent popularity of applications over their cumulative popularity. This demonstrates-even when using purely observational data without experimental design-that temporal data-driven modeling can effectively distinguish between competing microscopic mechanisms, allowing us to uncover previously unidentified aspects of collective online behavior.
Year
DOI
Venue
2013
10.1073/pnas.1313895111
PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
Keywords
Field
DocType
branching processes, complex systems
Social psychology,Data science,Complex system,Collective behavior,Observational study,Social network,Computer science,Popularity,Software,Generative model,The Internet
Journal
Volume
Issue
ISSN
111
29
0027-8424
Citations 
PageRank 
References 
6
0.43
15
Authors
5
Name
Order
Citations
PageRank
James P. Gleeson1232.36
Davide Cellai2212.10
Jukka-pekka Onnela347536.55
Mason A. Porter460.43
Felix Reed-Tsochas560.43