Paper Info
Title
Combinatorial prediction markets for fusing information from distributed experts and models
Abstract
Markets are a medium for information exchange between buyers and sellers. Prediction markets exploit the information transmission property of markets to improve forecasts of future events. Participants in a prediction market buy and sell assets that pay off if the underlying event occurs. Prices in a prediction market can be interpreted as consensus probabilities for the underlying events. Prediction markets thus provide a promising method to fuse information from a collection of human forecasters and/or computer forecasting algorithms. This paper describes the use of prediction markets as an information fusion mechanism, introduces combinatorial prediction markets as a mechanism for expressing and exploiting dependencies among base events, presents algorithms for performing basic market computations in combinatorial prediction markets, and introduces the SciCast combinatorial prediction market, a combinatorial prediction market for science and technology forecasting available at http://scicast.org.
Year
Venue
Keywords
2015
Information Fusion
Bayes methods,combinatorial mathematics,economic forecasting,market research,SciCast combinatorial prediction market,buyer-seller information exchange,combinatorial prediction markets,computer forecasting algorithms,consensus probabilities,distributed experts,distributed models,human forecasters,information fusion,information fusion mechanism,market information transmission property,Bayesian networks,Business forecasting,Combining expert judgment,Prediction markets
Field
DocType
Citations 
Prediction market,Computer science,Underlying event,Information exchange,Information transmission,Exploit,Probability distribution,Prediction algorithms,Artificial intelligence,Information fusion,Machine learning
Conference
0
PageRank 
References 
Authors
0.34
8
3
Name
Order
Citations
PageRank
Laskey, K.B.110111.81
Robin Hanson200.68
Charles R. Twardy3277.60