Title | ||
---|---|---|
Can the outside-view approach improve planning decisions in software development projects? |
Abstract | ||
---|---|---|
AbstractThis study empirically tackles the question of whether taking an outside-view approach, recommended for reducing the irrational behaviours associated with the planning fallacy, can also reduce the time underestimation, scope overload and over-requirement problems plaguing planning decisions in software development. Drawing on descriptive behavioural decision theory, this study examines whether the planning fallacy, a cognitive bias referring to the tendency of people to underestimate costs and overestimate benefits in evaluating a task to be performed, can provide a theoretical platform for mitigating irrational behaviours in the planning of software development projects. In particular, we argue that taking an outside-view approach in planning decisions for software development may have the same mitigating effects on time underestimation, scope overload and over-requirement it has been shown to have on cost underestimation and benefit overestimation. In an experiment investigating this argument, participants were randomly assigned to four groups by manipulating two outside-view mechanisms: reference information about past completion times present/absent and role perspective developer/consultant. After being presented with a to-be-developed software project, they were requested to estimate development times of various software features and to recommend which features to include within project scope given a fixed duration for the entire project. The results confirm that the three problems of time underestimation, scope overload and over-requirement are manifested in planning decisions for fixed-schedule software development projects. Moreover, the results show that these problems are mitigated, yet not eliminated, by presenting reference information about past completion times and by having a consultant role. |
Year | DOI | Venue |
---|---|---|
2016 | 10.1111/isj.12091 | Periodicals |
Keywords | Field | DocType |
software development, planning decisions, time underestimation, scope overload, over-requirement, planning fallacy, outside view, inside view, reference information, role perspective, experiment | Cognitive bias,Planning fallacy,Computer science,Knowledge management,Irrational number,Software,Decision theory,Management science,Software development | Journal |
Volume | Issue | ISSN |
26 | 4 | 1350-1917 |
Citations | PageRank | References |
3 | 0.36 | 36 |
Authors | ||
3 |
Name | Order | Citations | PageRank |
---|---|---|---|
Ofira Shmueli | 1 | 3 | 1.38 |
Nava Pliskin | 2 | 399 | 51.92 |
Lior Fink | 3 | 141 | 14.06 |