Name
Abstract | ||
|---|---|---|
This article considers the problem of choosing between two treatments that have binary outcomes with unknown success probabilities p(1) and p(2). The choice is based upon the information provided by two observations X-1 approximate to B(n(1), p(1)) and X-2 approximate to B(n(2), p(2)) from independent binomial distributions. Standard approaches to this problem utilize basic statistical inference methodologies such as hypothesis tests and confidence intervals for the difference p(1) - p(2) of the success probabilities. However, in this article the analysis of win-probabilities is considered. If X*(1) represents a potential future observation from Treatment 1 while X*(2) represents a potential future observation from Treatment 2, win-probabilities are defined in terms of the comparisons of X*(1) and X*(2). These win-probabilities provide a direct assessment of the relative advantages and disadvantages of choosing either treatment for one future application, and their interpretation can be combined with other factors such as costs, side-effects, and the availabilities of the two treatments. In this article, it is shown how confidence intervals for the win-probabilities can be constructed, and examples of their use are provided. Computer code for the implementation of this new methodology is available from the authors. |
Year | DOI | Venue |
|---|---|---|
2017 | 10.1080/03610918.2014.957848 | COMMUNICATIONS IN STATISTICS-SIMULATION AND COMPUTATION |
Keywords | Field | DocType |
Acceptance set,Bernoulli probability,Binomial distribution,Confidence interval,Non-inferiority,Selection,Win-probability | Bernoulli distribution,Acceptance set,Econometrics,Binomial distribution,Binomial,Statistical inference,Confidence interval,Statistics,Statistical hypothesis testing,Mathematics,Binary number | Journal |
Volume | Issue | ISSN |
46 | 1 | 0361-0918 |
Citations | PageRank | References |
0 | 0.34 | 0 |
Authors | ||
3 | ||
Name | Order | Citations | PageRank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nuwee Wiwatwattana | 1 | 367 | 17.50 |
| A. J. Hayter | 2 | 3 | 3.29 |
| Seksan Kiatsupaibul | 3 | 26 | 5.58 |