Title
Evaluating Lost Person Behavior Models.
Abstract
US wilderness search and rescue consumes thousands of person-hours and millions of dollars annually. Timeliness is critical: the probability of success decreases substantially after 24 hours. Although over 90% of searches are quickly resolved by standard reflex tasks, the remainder require and reward intensive planning. Planning begins with a probability map showing where the lost person is likely to be found. The MapScore project described here provides a way to evaluate probability maps using actual historical searches. In this work we generated probability maps the Euclidean distance tables in (Koester ), and using Doke's () watershed model. Watershed boundaries follow high terrain and may better reflect actual barriers to travel. We also created a third model using the joint distribution using Euclidean and watershed features. On a metric where random maps score 0 and perfect maps score 1, the Euclidean distance model scored 0.78 (95%CI: 0.74-0.82, on 376 cases). The simple watershed model by itself was clearly inferior at 0.61, but the Combined model was slightly better at 0.81 (95%CI: 0.77-0.84).
Year
DOI
Venue
2016
10.1111/tgis.12143
TRANSACTIONS IN GIS
Field
DocType
Volume
Joint probability distribution,Search and rescue,Computer science,Euclidean distance,Terrain,Remainder,Watershed,Euclidean geometry,Statistics
Journal
20.0
Issue
ISSN
Citations 
1.0
1361-1682
4
PageRank 
References 
Authors
0.50
3
4
Name
Order
Citations
PageRank
Elena Sava140.50
Charles R. Twardy2277.60
robert j koester340.50
Mukul Sonwalkar491.27