Name
Title | ||
|---|---|---|
Including public transportation into a large-scale agent-based model for epidemic prediction and control |
Abstract | ||
|---|---|---|
Large-scale agent-based modeling and simulation has recently become an effective analytical method for city/country/global level epidemic prediction and evaluation of potential disease control measures. However, the role of public transportation has not been widely investigated in this method, although it has been proven in historical observations and mathematical epidemic models that random contacts in dense areas (e.g., buses and metros) could be an influential factor for the transmission of most contagious diseases. This paper describes a large-scale agent-based model for epidemic prediction in the context of the metropolitan area of Beijing (with a population of 19.6 million people), where a microscopic public transport system (including metros and buses) is simulated and integrated with the agent-based model. This public transportation component is microscopic as we modeled all lines and stops for both the metro and the bus system in Beijing. Through this component, agents can realistically 'travel' to their destinations and the component will provide accurate travel routes and durations. To systematically investigate the role of this public transportation component and how interventions related to this component will impact the disease transmission, we implemented a pandemic influenza disease progression model, and we tested several interventions related to traveling behavior using public transport on a baseline model. The simulation results indicated that the inclusion of public transportation can offer more possibilities for public health policy makers to evaluate the interventions related to public transportation. |
Year | Venue | Field |
|---|---|---|
2015 | SummerSim | Public health,Population,Epidemic model,Agent-based model,Transport engineering,Public transport,Pandemic,Metropolitan area,Geography,Beijing,Operations management |
DocType | Citations | PageRank |
Conference | 0 | 0.34 |
References | Authors | |
8 | 3 | |
Name | Order | Citations | PageRank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mingxin Zhang | 1 | 1 | 1.03 |
| Rongqing Meng | 2 | 12 | 2.38 |
| Alexander Verbraeck | 3 | 483 | 76.95 |