Title
On the evaluation of uncertainties for state estimation with the Kalman filter
Abstract
The Kalman filter is an established tool for the analysis of dynamic systems with normally distributed noise, and it has been successfully applied in numerous areas. It provides sequentially calculated estimates of the system states along with a corresponding covariance matrix. For nonlinear systems, the extended Kalman filter is often used. This is derived from the Kalman filter by linearization around the current estimate. A key issue in metrology is the evaluation of the uncertainty associated with the Kalman filter state estimates. The 'Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement' (GUM) and its supplements serve as the de facto standard for uncertainty evaluation in metrology. We explore the relationship between the covariance matrix produced by the Kalman filter and a GUM-compliant uncertainty analysis. In addition, the results of a Bayesian analysis are considered. For the case of linear systems with known system matrices, we show that all three approaches are compatible. When the system matrices are not precisely known, however, or when the system is nonlinear, this equivalence breaks down and different results can then be reached. For precisely known nonlinear systems, though, the result of the extended Kalman filter still corresponds to the linearized uncertainty propagation of the GUM. The extended Kalman filter can suffer from linearization and convergence errors. These disadvantages can be avoided to some extent by applying Monte Carlo procedures, and we propose such a method which is GUM-compliant and can also be applied online during the estimation. We illustrate all procedures in terms of a 2D dynamic system and compare the results with those obtained by particle filtering, which has been proposed for the approximate calculation of a Bayesian solution. Finally, we give some recommendations based on our findings.
Year
DOI
Venue
2016
10.1088/0957-0233/27/12/125009
MEASUREMENT SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
Keywords
Field
DocType
Kalman filter,measurement uncertainty,Monte Carlo,particle filter,extended Kalman filter,GUM
Alpha beta filter,Extended Kalman filter,Fast Kalman filter,Control theory,Filtering problem,Unscented transform,Kalman filter,Invariant extended Kalman filter,Ensemble Kalman filter,Mathematics
Journal
Volume
Issue
ISSN
27
12
0957-0233
Citations 
PageRank 
References 
1
0.63
6
Authors
3
Name
Order
Citations
PageRank
Sascha Eichstädt122.36
Natallia Makarava210.96
Clemens Elster39614.27