Title
Predicting residential burglaries based on building elements and offender behavior: Study of a row house area in Seoul, Korea.
Abstract
Current methods for predicting residential burglaries mostly rely on analyses of crime patterns based on a real information. While this model is valid on an urban scale, it fails to consider street-scale environmental factors as well as offender behaviors in response to those factors. To improve the predictability of crime-simulation studies, this study investigated two influential factors in the occurrence of residential burglary: the physical properties of building elements and offender behaviors in response to those properties. First, a prediction algorithm was designed based on analyses of the factors. Next, a prediction method was established by modeling a virtual 3-D environment and a virtual offender using the algorithm. Lastly, the probability of residential burglary was analyzed via a simulation using the prediction method. A comparison of the simulation results with actual residential burglary data confirmed that the proposed method has statistically significant predictability.
Year
DOI
Venue
2017
10.1016/j.compenvurbsys.2016.09.004
Computers, Environment and Urban Systems
Keywords
Field
DocType
Residential burglary,Virtual agent-based modeling,Crime prediction,Environmental design,Offender behavior
Predictability,Simulation,Environmental design,Terraced house,Geography
Journal
Volume
ISSN
Citations 
61
0198-9715
1
PageRank 
References 
Authors
0.35
4
4
Name
Order
Citations
PageRank
Yoonseok Hwang110.69
Sungwon Jung232059.65
Jaewook Lee373550.24
Yongwook Jeong4101.05