Title
Sparse vector Markov switching autoregressive models. Application to multivariate time series of temperature.
Abstract
Multivariate time series are of interest in many fields including economics and environment. The dynamical processes occurring in these domains often exhibit a mixture of different dynamics so that it is common to describe them using Markov Switching vector autoregressive processes. However the estimation of such models is difficult even when the dimension is not so high because of the number of parameters involved. A Smoothly Clipped Absolute Deviation penalization of the likelihood is proposed to shrink the parameters towards zeros and regularize the inference problem which is generally ill-posed. The Expectation Maximization algorithm built for maximizing the penalized likelihood is described in detail and tested on simulated data and real data consisting of daily mean temperature.
Year
DOI
Venue
2017
10.1016/j.csda.2016.10.023
Computational Statistics & Data Analysis
Keywords
DocType
Volume
Markov switching vector autoregressive process,Sparsity,Penalized likelihood,SCAD,EM algorithm,Daily temperature,Stochastic weather generators
Journal
108
Issue
ISSN
Citations 
C
0167-9473
1
PageRank 
References 
Authors
0.36
0
2
Name
Order
Citations
PageRank
Valérie Monbet110.36
pierre ailliot2205.50