Name
Abstract | ||
|---|---|---|
Civilian protest is a complex phenomenon where large numbers of protestors participate in demonstrations. It involves multiple groups, various trigger events and social reinforcement where groups excite each other. We present a graphical generative model in which a baseline spontaneous process may undergo excitation due to external triggers, as well as inter-group contagion. We define a trigger-conditional multivariate Hawkes process, where excitation is conditional on the presence of active triggers. An arrival in this process corresponds to a batch of protestors, and random marks on the arrival serve to capture both the excitation-related parameters as well as the size of protest. The batch arrival intensity and the batch size, while mutually independent, exhibit respective history-dependence due to memory that is modeled in the excitation phenomena. We present a simulation algorithm for generating sample paths, and results estimating likelihood of large-scale protest on a realistic model.
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Year | DOI | Venue |
|---|---|---|
2017 | 10.5555/3242181.3242567 | WSC '17: Winter Simulation Conference
Las Vegas
Nevada
December, 2017 |
Field | DocType | ISSN |
Data modeling,Spontaneous process,Computer science,Simulation,Algorithm,Stochastic process,Graphical model,Generative grammar,Simulation algorithm,Independence (probability theory),Generative model | Conference | 0891-7736 |
ISBN | Citations | PageRank |
978-1-5386-3427-1 | 0 | 0.34 |
References | Authors | |
0 | 2 | |
Name | Order | Citations | PageRank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dharmashankar Subramanian | 1 | 28 | 8.22 |
| Lucia L. Titus | 2 | 0 | 0.34 |