Title
Hot Topic Trend Prediction of Topic Based on Markov Chain and Dynamic Backtracking.
Abstract
Predicting topic trend in social networks can provide good reference value for public opinion guidance and commercial marketing. In this paper, we discuss the hot topic evaluation methods, and then present a method for evaluating the topic popularity of microblog based on multiple factors, which comprehending four factors (the number of micro blog, number of forwarding, number of comments, and number of praise) and using relative ranking method to define the value of micro blog popularity. In order to improve the prediction accuracy of hot topics, we present a prediction algorithm based on Markov chain and dynamic backtracking, which is based our evaluation method. In the algorithm, we use the simulated annealing method to find the optimal parameters and improve the accuracy of the prediction algorithm based on the Markov chain by historical backtracking. Analysis and simulation results demonstrate that the proposed algorithm is more accurate than some conventional methods.
Year
DOI
Venue
2017
10.1007/978-3-319-77383-4_51
ADVANCES IN MULTIMEDIA INFORMATION PROCESSING - PCM 2017, PT II
Keywords
Field
DocType
Social network,Markov chain,Trend prediction
Simulated annealing,Data mining,Social media,Ranking,Pattern recognition,Computer science,Popularity,Markov chain,Microblogging,Artificial intelligence,Backtracking,Trend prediction
Conference
Volume
ISSN
Citations 
10736
0302-9743
0
PageRank 
References 
Authors
0.34
19
4
Name
Order
Citations
PageRank
Feng Xu144869.80
Jue Liu200.34
Ying He300.34
Yating Hou400.34