Paper Info
Title
Exploring the impacts of climate and policy changes on coastal community resilience: Simulating alternative future scenarios.
Abstract
Coupled models of coastal hazards, ecosystems, socioeconomics, and landscape management in conjunction with alternative scenario analysis provide tools that can allow decision-makers to explore effects of policy decisions under uncertain futures. Here, we describe the development and assessment of a set of model-based alternative future scenarios examining climate and population driven landscape dynamics for a coastal region in the U.S. Pacific Northwest. These scenarios incorporated coupled spatiotemporal models of climate and coastal hazards, population and development, and policy and assessed a variety of landscape metrics for each scenario. Coastal flooding and erosion were probabilistically simulated using 99 future 95-year climate scenarios. Five policy scenarios were iteratively co-developed by researchers and stakeholders in Tillamook County, Oregon. Results suggest that both climate change and management decisions have a significant impact across the landscape, and can potentially impact geographic regions at different magnitudes and timescales.
Year
DOI
Venue
2018
10.1016/j.envsoft.2018.07.022
Environmental Modelling & Software
Keywords
Field
DocType
Climate change adaptation planning,Coastal community resilience,Coastal flooding,Coastal hazards,Envision,Tillamook county,OR
Population,Climate change,Environmental resource management,Hydrology,Futures contract,Computer science,Community resilience,Scenario analysis,Coastal flood,Coastal hazards,Ecosystem
Journal
Volume
ISSN
Citations 
109
1364-8152
1
PageRank 
References 
Authors
0.35
3
9
Name
Order
Citations
PageRank
Alexis K. Mills110.35
John Bolte241.51
Peter Ruggiero310.35
Katherine A. Serafin410.35
Eva Lipiec510.35
Patrick Corcoran610.35
John Stevenson710.35
Chad Zanocco810.69
Denise Lach972.27