Title
Estimating Remaining Useful Life for Degrading Systems with Large Fluctuations
Abstract
Remaining useful life (RUL) prediction method based on degradation trajectory has been one of the most important parts in prognostics and health management (PHM). In the conventional model, the degradation data are usually used for degradation modeling directly. In engineering practice, the degradation of many systems presents a volatile situation, that is, fluctuation. In fact, the volatility of degradation data shows the stability of system, so it could be used to reflect the performance of system. As such, this paper proposes a new degradation model for RUL estimation based on the volatility of degradation data. Firstly the degradation data are decomposed into trend items and random items, which are defined as a stochastic process. Then the standard deviation of the stochastic process is defined as another performance variable because standard deviation reflects the system performance. Finally the Wiener process and the normal stochastic process are used to model the trend items and random items separately, and then the probability density function (PDF) of the RUL is obtained via a redefined failure threshold function that combines the trend items and the standard deviation of the randomitems. Two practical case studies demonstrate that, compared with traditional approaches, the proposed model can deal with the degradation data with many fluctuations better and can get a more reasonable result which is convenient for maintenance decision.
Year
DOI
Venue
2018
10.1155/2018/9182783
JOURNAL OF CONTROL SCIENCE AND ENGINEERING
Field
DocType
Volume
Wiener process,Prognostics,Control theory,Stochastic process,Degradation (geology),Probability density function,Standard deviation,Volatility (finance),Mathematics,Trajectory
Journal
2018
ISSN
Citations 
PageRank 
1687-5249
1
0.37
References 
Authors
7
5
Name
Order
Citations
PageRank
Dang-Bo Du1113.91
Jian-Xun Zhang2496.42
ZhiJie Zhou347937.36
Xiao-Sheng Si462346.17
C. H. Chang542836.69