Title
Lifetime Estimation for Multi-Phase Deteriorating Process with Random Abrupt Jumps.
Abstract
Owing to operating condition changing, physical mutation, and sudden shocks, degradation trajectories usually exhibit multi-phase features, and the abrupt jump often appears at the changing time, which makes the traditional methods of lifetime estimation unavailable. In this paper, we mainly focus on how to estimate the lifetime of the multi-phase degradation process with abrupt jumps at the change points under the concept of the first passage time (FPT). Firstly, a multi-phase degradation model with jumps based on the Wiener process is formulated to describe the multi-phase degradation pattern. Then, we attain the lifetime's closed-form expression for the two-phase model with fixed jump relying on the distribution of the degradation state at the change point. Furthermore, we continue to investigate the lifetime estimation of the degradation process with random effect caused by unit-to-unit variability and the multi-phase degradation process. We extend the results of the two-phase case with fixed parameters to these two cases. For better implementation, a model identification method with off-line and on-line parts based on Expectation Maximization (EM) algorithm and Bayesian rule is proposed. Finally, a numerical case study and a practical example of gyro are provided for illustration.
Year
DOI
Venue
2019
10.3390/s19061472
SENSORS
Keywords
Field
DocType
life prognostics,reliability,multi-phase degradation,expectation maximization algorithm,random jump
Statistical physics,Wiener process,Random effects model,Expectation–maximization algorithm,Degradation (geology),Electronic engineering,Engineering,System identification,Jump,First-hitting-time model,Bayesian probability
Journal
Volume
Issue
ISSN
19
6.0
1424-8220
Citations 
PageRank 
References 
0
0.34
0
Authors
5
Name
Order
Citations
PageRank
Jianxun Zhang145.48
Xiao-Sheng Si262346.17
Dang-Bo Du3113.91
Chen Hu4226.21
C. H. Chang542836.69