Title
Developing and Improving Risk Models using Machine-learning Based Algorithms
Abstract
The objective of this study is to develop a good risk model for classifying business delinquency by simultaneously exploring several machine learning based methods including regularization, hyper-parameter optimization, and model ensembling algorithms. The rationale under the analyses is firstly to obtain good base binary classifiers (include Logistic Regression (LR), K-Nearest Neighbors (KNN), Decision Tree (DT), and Artificial Neural Networks (ANN)) via regularization and appropriate settings of hyper-parameters. Then two model ensembling algorithms including bagging and boosting are performed on the good base classifiers for further model improvement. The models are evaluated using accuracy, Area Under the Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve (AUC of ROC), recall, and F1 score via repeating 10-fold cross-validation 10 times. The results show the optimal base classifiers along with the hyper-parameter settings are LR without regularization, KNN by using 9 nearest neighbors, DT by setting the maximum level of the tree to be 7, and ANN with three hidden layers. Bagging on KNN with K valued 9 is the optimal model we can get for risk classification as it reaches the average accuracy, AUC, recall, and F1 score valued 0.90, 0.93, 0.82, and 0.89, respectively.
Year
DOI
Venue
2019
10.1145/3299815.3314478
Proceedings of the 2019 ACM Southeast Conference
Keywords
Field
DocType
Improve Risk Model, Machine Learning
F1 score,Decision tree,Receiver operating characteristic,Computer science,Algorithm,Regularization (mathematics),Boosting (machine learning),Artificial intelligence,Artificial neural network,Logistic regression,Machine learning,Binary number
Conference
ISBN
Citations 
PageRank 
978-1-4503-6251-1
0
0.34
References 
Authors
4
2
Name
Order
Citations
PageRank
Yan Wang116828.11
Xuelei Sherry Ni201.35