Title
Using Synthetic Traces for Robust Energy System Sizing.
Abstract
Due to the inherent randomness of both solar power generation and residential electrical load, jointly sizing solar panel and storage capacity to meet a given quality-of-service (QoS) constraint is challenging. The challenge is greater when there is limited representative historical data. We therefore propose generating synthetic solar and load traces, corresponding to different realizations of the underlying stochastic processes. Specifically, we compare the effectiveness of three generative models: autoregressive moving-average (ARMA) models, Gaussian mixture models (GMMs), and generative adversarial networks (GANs) - as well as two direct sampling methods - for synthetic trace generation. These traces are then used for robust joint sizing by a technique described in recent work. Extensive experiments based on real data show that our approach finds robust sizing with only one year's worth of hourly trace data. Moreover, assuming that solar data are available, given a database of load traces, we demonstrate how to perform robust sizing with access to only twelve data points of load, one for each month of one year.
Year
DOI
Venue
2019
10.1145/3307772.3328306
E-ENERGY'19: PROCEEDINGS OF THE 10TH ACM INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON FUTURE ENERGY SYSTEMS
Keywords
Field
DocType
Robust sizing,Solar,Storage,Generative models
Data point,Autoregressive model,Mathematical optimization,Electrical load,Computer science,Stochastic process,Solar power,Sizing,Mixture model,Randomness
Conference
Citations 
PageRank 
References 
1
0.37
0
Authors
4
Name
Order
Citations
PageRank
Sun Sun1535.66
Fiodar Kazhamiaka241.19
Srinivasan Keshav33778761.32
Catherine Rosenberg41877137.46