Title
A Learning-Based Approach For Uncertainty Analysis In Numerical Weather Prediction Models
Abstract
This paper demonstrates the use of machine learning techniques to study the uncertainty in numerical weather prediction models due to the interaction of multiple physical processes. We aim to address the following problems: (1) estimation of systematic model errors in output quantities of interest at future times and (2) identification of specific physical processes that contribute most to the forecast uncertainty in the quantity of interest under specified meteorological conditions. To address these problems, we employ simple machine learning algorithms and perform numerical experiments with Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and the results show a reduction of forecast errors by an order of magnitude.
Year
DOI
Venue
2019
10.1007/978-3-030-22747-0_10
COMPUTATIONAL SCIENCE - ICCS 2019, PT IV
Keywords
Field
DocType
Numerical weather prediction, Structural uncertainty, Model errors, Machine learning
Mathematical optimization,Numerical weather prediction models,Simple machine,Computer science,Weather Research and Forecasting Model,Uncertainty analysis,Artificial intelligence,Machine learning,Numerical weather prediction
Conference
Volume
ISSN
Citations 
11539
0302-9743
0
PageRank 
References 
Authors
0.34
0
3
Name
Order
Citations
PageRank
Azam S. Zavar Moosavi1144.12
Vishwas Rao2174.39
Adrian Sandu332558.93