Title
Consistency And Finite Sample Behavior Of Binary Class Probability Estimation
Abstract
We investigate to which extent one can recover class probabilities within the empirical risk minimization (ERM) paradigm. We extend existing results and emphasize the tight relations between empirical risk minimization and class probability estimation. Following previous literature on excess risk bounds and proper scoring rules, we derive a class probability estimator based on empirical risk minimization. We then derive conditions under which this estimator will converge with high probability to the true class probabilities with respect to the L-1-norm. One of our core contributions is a novel way to derive finite sample L-1-convergence rates of this estimator for different surrogate loss functions. We also study in detail which commonly used loss functions are suitable for this estimation problem and briefly address the setting of model-misspecification.
Year
Venue
DocType
2021
THIRTY-FIFTH AAAI CONFERENCE ON ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE, THIRTY-THIRD CONFERENCE ON INNOVATIVE APPLICATIONS OF ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE AND THE ELEVENTH SYMPOSIUM ON EDUCATIONAL ADVANCES IN ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE
Conference
Volume
ISSN
Citations 
35
2159-5399
0
PageRank 
References 
Authors
0.34
0
2
Name
Order
Citations
PageRank
Alexander Mey103.38
Marco Loog21796154.31