Paper Info
Title
A genetic algorithm for identifying spatially-varying environmental drivers in a malaria time series model.
Abstract
Time series models of malaria cases can be applied to forecast epidemics and support proactive interventions. Mosquito life history and parasite development are sensitive to environmental factors such as temperature and precipitation, and these variables are often used as predictors in malaria models. However, malaria-environment relationships can vary with ecological and social context. We used a genetic algorithm to optimize a spatiotemporal malaria model by aggregating locations into clusters with similar environmental sensitivities. We tested the algorithm in the Amhara Region of Ethiopia using seven years of weekly Plasmodium falciparum data from 47 districts and remotely-sensed land surface temperature, precipitation, and spectral indices as predictors. The best model identified six clusters, and the districts in each cluster had distinctive responses to the environmental predictors. We conclude that spatial stratification can improve the fit of environmentally-driven disease models, and genetic algorithms provide a practical and effective approach for identifying these clusters.
Year
DOI
Venue
2019
10.1016/j.envsoft.2019.06.010
Environmental Modelling & Software
Keywords
Field
DocType
Evolutionary algorithm,Mosquito-borne disease,Spatiotemporal model,Remote sensing,Early warning
Time series,Land surface temperature,Computer science,Plasmodium falciparum,Malaria,Statistics,Management science,Genetic algorithm
Journal
Volume
ISSN
Citations 
119
1364-8152
0
PageRank 
References 
Authors
0.34
0
7
Name
Order
Citations
PageRank
Justin K. Davis100.34
Teklehaymanot Gebrehiwot200.34
Mastewal Worku300.34
Worku Awoke400.34
Abere Mihretie500.34
Dawn Nekorchuk600.34
Michael C. Wimberly7265.89