Title
Persistence Analysis and Prediction of Low-Visibility Events at Valladolid Airport, Spain.
Abstract
This work presents an analysis of low-visibility event persistence and prediction at Villanubla Airport (Valladolid, Spain), considering Runway Visual Range (RVR) time series in winter. The analysis covers long- and short-term persistence and prediction of the series, with different approaches. In the case of long-term analysis, a Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (DFA) approach is applied in order to estimate large-scale RVR time series similarities. The short-term persistence analysis of low-visibility events is evaluated by means of a Markov chain analysis of the binary time series associated with low-visibility events. We finally discuss an hourly short-term prediction of low-visibility events, using different approaches, some of them coming from the persistence analysis through Markov chain models, and others based on Machine Learning (ML) techniques. We show that a Mixture of Experts approach involving persistence-based methods and Machine Learning techniques provides the best results in this prediction problem.
Year
DOI
Venue
2020
10.3390/sym12061045
SYMMETRY-BASEL
Keywords
DocType
Volume
low-visibility events,radiation fog,persistence analysis,detrended fluctuation analysis,markov chains,machine learning algorithms
Journal
12
Issue
Citations 
PageRank 
6
0
0.34
References 
Authors
0
8