Paper Info
Title
Geographic Distribution of Desert Locusts in Africa, Asia and Europe Using Multiple Sources of Remote-Sensing Data.
Abstract
In history, every occurrence of a desert locust plague has brought a devastating blow to local agriculture. Analyses of the potential geographic distribution and migration paths of desert locusts can be used to better monitor and provide early warnings about desert locust outbreaks. By using environmental data from multiple remote-sensing data sources, we simulate the potential habitats of desert locusts in Africa, Asia and Europe in this study using a logistic regression model that was developed based on desert locust monitoring records. The logistic regression model showed high accuracy, with an average training area under the curve (AUC) value of 0.84 and a kappa coefficient of 0.75. Our analysis indicated that the temperature and leaf area index (LAI) play important roles in shaping the spatial distribution of desert locusts. A model analysis based on data for six environmental variables over the past 15 years predicted that the potential habitats of desert locust present a periodic movement pattern between 40 degrees N and 30 degrees S latitude. The area of the potential desert locust habitat reached a maximum in July, with a suitable area exceeding 2.77 x 10(7) km(2) and located entirely between 0 degrees N and 40 degrees N in Asia-Europe and Africa. In December, the potential distribution of desert locusts reached its minimum area at 0.68 x 10(7) km(2) and was located between 30 degrees N and 30 degrees S in Asia and Africa. According to the model estimates, desert locust-prone areas are distributed in northern Ethiopia, South Sudan, northwestern Kenya, the southern Arabian Peninsula, the border area between India and Pakistan, and the southern Indian Peninsula. In addition, desert locusts were predicted to migrate from east to west between these areas and in Africa between 10 degrees N and 17 degrees N. Countries in these areas should closely monitor desert locust populations and respond rapidly.
Year
DOI
Venue
2020
10.3390/rs12213593
REMOTE SENSING
Keywords
DocType
Volume
potential geographic distribution,logistic regression model,desert locust,migration path analysis
Journal
12
Issue
Citations 
PageRank 
21
0
0.34
References 
Authors
0
7
Name
Order
Citations
PageRank
Chaoliang Chen100.34
Jing Qian275.67
Xi Chen3186.51
Zengyun Hu411.03
Jiayu Sun500.34
Shujie Wei600.68
Kaibin Xu700.68