Title
Forecasting peak energy demand for smart buildings
Abstract
Predicting energy consumption in buildings plays an important part in the process of digital transformation of the built environment, and for understanding the potential for energy savings. This also contributes to reducing the impact of climate change, where buildings need to increase their adaptability and resilience while reducing energy consumption and maintain user comfort. The use of Internet of Things devices for monitoring and control of energy consumption in buildings can take into account user preferences, event monitoring and building optimization. Detecting peak energy demand from historical building data can enable users to manage their energy use more efficiently, while also enabling real-time response strategies (including control and actuation) to known or future scenarios. Several statistical, time series, and machine learning techniques are proposed in this work to predict electricity consumption for five different building types, by using peak demand forecasting to achieve energy efficiency. We have used several indigenous and exogenous variables with a view to test different energy forecasting scenarios. The suggested techniques are evaluated for creating predictive models, including linear Regression, dynamic regression, ARIMA time series, exponential smoothing time series, artificial neural network, and deep neural network. We conduct the analysis on an energy consumption dataset of five buildings from 2014 until 2019. Our results show that for a day ahead prediction, the ARIMA model outperforms the other approaches with an accuracy of 98.91% when executed over a 168 h (1 week) of uninterrupted data for five government buildings.
Year
DOI
Venue
2021
10.1007/s11227-020-03540-3
The Journal of Supercomputing
Keywords
DocType
Volume
Energy forecasting, Time series, ARIMA, Peak demand, ANN, Smart buildings
Journal
77
Issue
ISSN
Citations 
6
0920-8542
0
PageRank 
References 
Authors
0.34
6
5
Name
Order
Citations
PageRank
Mona A. Alduailij100.34
Ioan Petri212418.65
Omer Rana321.06
Mai A. Alduailij400.34
Abdulrahman S. Aldawood500.34