Title
Identification And Prediction Of Time-Varying Parameters Of Covid-19 Model: A Data-Driven Deep Learning Approach
Abstract
Data-driven deep learning provides efficient algorithms for parameter identification of epidemiology models. Unlike the constant parameters, the complexity of identifying time-varying parameters is largely increased. In this paper, a variant of physics-informed neural network is adopted to identify the time-varying parameters of the Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered-Deceased model for the spread of COVID-19 by fitting daily reported cases. The learned parameters are verified by utilizing an ordinary differential equation solver to compute the corresponding solutions of this compartmental model. The effective reproduction number based on these parameters is calculated. Long Short-Term Memory neural network is employed to predict the future weekly time-varying parameters. The numerical simulations demonstrate that PINN combined with LSTM yields accurate and effective results.
Year
DOI
Venue
2021
10.1080/00207160.2021.1929942
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF COMPUTER MATHEMATICS
Keywords
DocType
Volume
PINN, LSTM, SIRD, COVID-19, deep neural network
Journal
98
Issue
ISSN
Citations 
8
0020-7160
2
PageRank 
References 
Authors
0.45
0
3
Name
Order
Citations
PageRank
Jie Long120.45
Abdul-qayyum M. Khaliq27716.86
Khaled Furati320.45