Paper Info
Title
Historic And Simulated Desert-Oasis Ecotone Changes In The Arid Tarim River Basin, China
Abstract
The desert-oasis ecotone, as a crucial natural barrier, maintains the stability of oasis agricultural production and protects oasis habitat security. This paper investigates the dynamic evolution of the desert-oasis ecotone in the Tarim River Basin and predicts the near-future land-use change in the desert-oasis ecotone using the cellular automata-Markov (CA-Markov) model. Results indicate that the overall area of the desert-oasis ecotone shows a shrinking trend (from 67,642 km(2) in 1990 to 46,613 km(2) in 2015) and the land-use change within the desert-oasis ecotone is mainly manifested by the conversion of a large amount of forest and grass area into arable land. The increasing demand for arable land for groundwater has led to a decline in the groundwater level, which is an important reason for the habitat deterioration in the desert-oasis ecotone. The rising temperature and drought have further exacerbated this trend. Assuming the current trend in development without intervention, the CA-Markov model predicts that by 2030, there will be an additional 1566 km(2) of arable land and a reduction of 1151 km(2) in forested area and grassland within the desert-oasis ecotone, which will inevitably further weaken the ecological barrier role of the desert-oasis ecotone and trigger a growing ecological crisis.
Year
DOI
Venue
2021
10.3390/rs13040647
REMOTE SENSING
Keywords
DocType
Volume
Tarim River Basin, desert-oasis ecotone, land-use change, CA-Markov model
Journal
13
Issue
Citations 
PageRank 
4
0
0.34
References 
Authors
0
7
Name
Order
Citations
PageRank
Fan Sun101.69
Yi Wang200.34
Yaning Chen3511.01
Yupeng Li402.70
Qifei Zhang500.68
Jingxiu Qin600.34
Patient Mindje Kayumba702.37