Paper Info
Title
Precursors And Startling Lessons: Statistical Analysis Of 1250 Events With Safety Significance From The Civil Nuclear Sector
Abstract
We analyze the ETH Zurich open curated database of 1250 worldwide nuclear events focused on safety significance with potentials for precursors, presented in the companion paper. We find that major accidents always trigger a wave of "reactive" reporting as well as changes in regulatory or corporate management that last 5 to 6 years, mostly due to increased alertness, improved transparency, uncovering latent design errors, and heightened public pressure. The leading causes for multi-unit events are found to be external triggers and design issues, confirming the need to adapt PSAs to cover multi-unit events accordingly. Common-cause failures (CCF) are found to occur fairly frequently, at different levels, and can significantly erode the safety of the plant. From the lessons learned from this analysis, we suggest that frequent review of components design and operating procedures, employing different teams for testing and maintenance activities on redundant trains, and sharing operational experience between plants of similar designs, are some of the steps that should be taken in order to limit future occurrences of CCFs and beyond that further improve plant safety. We identify some quantitative signs of aging for plants after the age of 25. Our findings stress the need for larger recording, reliance, and sharing of operational data to support learning from experience and avoid reoccurrence of accidents and events.
Year
DOI
Venue
2021
10.1016/j.ress.2021.107820
RELIABILITY ENGINEERING & SYSTEM SAFETY
Keywords
DocType
Volume
Nuclear accidents, Nuclear safety, Precursors, Operational experience, PSA, Risk, Statistical analysis
Journal
214
ISSN
Citations 
PageRank 
0951-8320
0
0.34
References 
Authors
0
4
Name
Order
Citations
PageRank
Ali Ayoub100.34
Andrej Stankovski200.34
Wolfgang Kröger3283.20
Didier Sornette423837.50