Title
Assessing Earthquake Forecast Performance Based On B Value In Yunnan Province, China
Abstract
Many studies have shown that b values tend to decrease prior to large earthquakes. To evaluate the forecast information in b value variations, we conduct a systematic assessment in Yunnan Province, China, where the seismicity is intense and moderate-large earthquakes occur frequently. The catalog in the past two decades is divided into four time periods (January 2000-December 2004, January 2005-December 2009, January 2010-December 2014, and January 2015-December 2019). The spatial b values are calculated for each 5-year span and then are used to forecast moderate-large earthquakes (M >= 5.0) in the subsequent period. As the fault systems in Yunnan Province are complex, to avoid possible biases in b value computation caused by different faulting regimes when using the grid search, the hierarchical space-time point-process models (HIST-PPM) proposed by Ogata are utilized to estimate spatial b values in this study. The forecast performance is tested by Molchan error diagram (MED) and the efficiency is quantified by probability gain (PG) and probability difference (PD). It is found that moderate-large earthquakes are more likely to occur in low b regions. The MED analysis shows that there is considerable precursory information in spatial b values and the forecast efficiency increases with magnitude in the Yunnan Province. These results suggest that the b value might be useful in middle- and long-term earthquake forecasts in the study area.
Year
DOI
Venue
2021
10.3390/e23060730
ENTROPY
Keywords
DocType
Volume
b value, molchan error diagram, earthquake forecast, Yunnan, China
Journal
23
Issue
ISSN
Citations 
6
1099-4300
0
PageRank 
References 
Authors
0.34
0
10
Name
Order
Citations
PageRank
Rui Wang100.68
Ying Chang200.34
Miao Miao300.68
Zhiyi Zeng400.34
Hongyan Chen501.01
Haixia Shi600.68
Danning Li700.34
Lifang Liu800.34
Youjin Su900.34
Peng Han1000.68