Title
Popularity Prediction Of Online Contents Via Cascade Graph And Temporal Information
Abstract
Predicting the popularity of online content is an important task for content recommendation, social influence prediction and so on. Recent deep learning models generally utilize graph neural networks to model the complex relationship between information cascade graph and future popularity, and have shown better prediction results compared with traditional methods. However, existing models adopt simple graph pooling strategies, e.g., summation or average, which prone to generate inefficient cascade graph representation and lead to unsatisfactory prediction results. Meanwhile, they often overlook the temporal information in the diffusion process which has been proved to be a salient predictor for popularity prediction. To focus attention on the important users and exclude noises caused by other less relevant users when generating cascade graph representation, we learn the importance coefficient of users and adopt sample mechanism in graph pooling process. In order to capture the temporal features in the diffusion process, we incorporate the inter-infection duration time information into our model by using LSTM neural network. The results show that temporal information rather than cascade graph information is a better predictor for popularity. The experimental results on real datasets show that our model significantly improves the prediction accuracy compared with other state-of-the-art methods.
Year
DOI
Venue
2021
10.3390/axioms10030159
AXIOMS
Keywords
DocType
Volume
popularity prediction, information cascade, deep learning, social network analysis
Journal
10
Issue
Citations 
PageRank 
3
0
0.34
References 
Authors
0
7
Name
Order
Citations
PageRank
Yingdan Shang100.34
Bin Zhou234130.99
Ye Wang300.34
Aiping Li400.34
Kai Chen500.34
Yichen Song600.34
Changjian Lin700.34